Emelec 1-0 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
58%
-5.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.7pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emelec EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 21%
-2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.50/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.80
-13% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 216 · 71%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.9 Crosses 18.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emelec
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.05 xG 1.20
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
290 Passes 215
77% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.03.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
12.08.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 3-0 HT 1-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
09.03.2024 Emelec Emelec 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
23.09.2023 Emelec Emelec 3-1 HT 1-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
24.04.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
02.10.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Emelec Emelec EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emelec
1-0
AWAY Mushuc Runa
0.66 xG 0.55
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
241 Passes 135
75% Pass Accuracy 60%
20 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Emelec vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Emelec squeezed past Mushuc Runa 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Emelec as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Emelec had 57% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 43%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.66 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Emelec and 0.83 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Emelec vs Mushuc Runa?

Emelec 1-0 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emelec vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emelec win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Emelec 52%, draw 24%, Mushuc Runa 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Emelec), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Emelec) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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