Orense 1-1 El Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 20 Jul 2025

📅20/07/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
59%
-10.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY El Nacional EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +17%
1.26/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.60
-31% / +83% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
293 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 76%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
22.8 Crosses 13.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY El Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 1.27
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
237 Passes 236
73% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2025 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Orense Orense EKV1
27.10.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 0-1 HT 0-1 Orense Orense EKV1
04.05.2024 Orense Orense 0-1 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
21.10.2023 Orense Orense 1-1 HT 0-1 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
13.05.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 3-1 HT 3-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.12.2020 Orense Orense 1-0 HT 0-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
1-1
AWAY El Nacional
0.84 xG 1.11
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
341 Passes 182
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
22 Box Touches 14
27 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Orense vs El Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense and El Nacional couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Orense at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Orense had 61% of the ball to El Nacional's 39%, shots finished 11-6, expected goals 0.84 to 1.11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Orense and 0.83 for El Nacional.

What was the final score of Orense vs El Nacional?

Orense 1-1 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 20/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs El Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Orense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Orense 49%, draw 25%, El Nacional 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Orense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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