Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Pachuca v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Pachuca vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Pachuca 1-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Pachuca and Toluca finished all square at 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.
We leaned Toluca at 45% — softly — and the game went the other way. Slim leads do that. Small consolation: at 1.89 (roughly 53%) the price was further off than we were. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.
By the numbers, Toluca saw more of the ball, 52% to 48%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.91 to 0.64.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Pachuca against 2.83 for Toluca.
Pachuca vs Toluca Result & Final Score
Pachuca 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 23/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 30%, draw 25%, Toluca 45%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5 went the other way.