Elfsborg 4-3 IK Sirius — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Allsvenskan, 23 Apr 2025

Elfsborg
4-3 HT 2-1
IK Sirius
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Sweden - Allsvenskan – 2025

Elfsborg vs IK Sirius Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.03
2-3 Goals
35%
1.89
4-5 Goals
26%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 29% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.17
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.15
X/1
15%
4.36
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
9.72
X/X
8%
5.62
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
13%
7.45
2/X
9%
15.65
Value flag · X/2 at 9.72 — our 13% vs market 7.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-10.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
21%
+10.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.1pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Elfsborg v IK Sirius — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY IK Sirius EU Bookmakers 24%
+3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +1%
1.76/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.51
+7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
27.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
21.5 Crosses 15.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1

Elfsborg vs IK Sirius Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Elfsborg
4W-0D-2L
AWAY IK Sirius
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.13 xG 1.09
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
298 Passes 444
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.10.2024 IK Sirius IK Sirius 4-1 HT 1-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
29.04.2024 Elfsborg Elfsborg 2-0 HT 1-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
06.08.2023 Elfsborg Elfsborg 1-0 HT 0-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
08.05.2023 IK Sirius IK Sirius 3-4 HT 2-1 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ
18.09.2022 Elfsborg Elfsborg 3-0 HT 2-0 IK Sirius IK Sirius İSÇ
14.05.2022 IK Sirius IK Sirius 2-0 HT 0-0 Elfsborg Elfsborg İSÇ

Elfsborg 4-3 IK Sirius — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
4-3
AWAY IK Sirius
1.22 xG 2.04
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 3
377 Passes 398
89% Pass Accuracy 89%
39 Box Touches 26
21 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs IK Sirius
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg squeezed past IK Sirius 4-3. Half-time: 2-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Elfsborg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 49% of the ball to IK Sirius's 51%, shots finished 19-17, expected goals 1.22 to 2.04 — the balance of chances actually favoured IK Sirius.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Elfsborg had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Elfsborg and 1.50 for IK Sirius.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs IK Sirius?

Elfsborg 4-3 IK Sirius in the Sweden - Allsvenskan on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs IK Sirius?

Before kick-off our model rated a Elfsborg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 46%, draw 23%, IK Sirius 32%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Elfsborg) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Elfsborg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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