Celta Vigo 3-0 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Apr 2025

Celta Vigo
3-0 HT 1-0
Villarreal
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
2.15
Over
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.53
No
51%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
28%
4.27
2-3
42%
1.88
4-5
21%
2.91
6+
9%
8.54
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.27 — our 28% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.32
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
8%
11.7
X/1
11%
5.83
X/2 ✗
22%
6.7
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
10%
24.65
2/2
11%
4.14
2/X
8%
12.0
Value flag · X/2 at 6.7 — our 22% vs market 11.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
40%
-4.0pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.6pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
61%
-12.2pp
51%
BTTS No
39%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Villarreal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 37%
-7% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -5%
1.38/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.33
+5% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
349 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.7 Crosses 14.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Celta Vigo vs Villarreal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Villarreal
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.97 xG 1.75
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
434 Passes 407
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 21
27 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.08.2024 Villarreal Villarreal 4-3 HT 1-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
05.05.2024 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 3-2 HT 2-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
20.12.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-2 HT 2-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
30.04.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 3-1 HT 2-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
13.01.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
12.03.2022 Villarreal Villarreal 1-0 HT 0-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1

Celta Vigo 3-0 Villarreal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
3-0
AWAY Villarreal
3.09 xG 0.37
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
549 Passes 320
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
42 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo cruised past Villarreal 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Celta Vigo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 61% of the ball to Villarreal's 39%, shots finished 21-4, expected goals 3.09 to 0.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celta Vigo and 2.33 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?

Celta Vigo 3-0 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 36%, draw 26%, Villarreal 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Villarreal), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Villarreal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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