Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Deportivo Alaves v Real Sociedad — Team-Based Signals
Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Deportivo Alaves
İS1
1-1
HT 0-1
Real Sociedad
İS1
Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad — Actual Match Statistics
Deportivo Alaves nicked a narrow win over Real Sociedad 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Deportivo Alaves as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (63%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Deportivo Alaves had 37% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 63%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 0.57 to 0.79.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Real Sociedad led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Deportivo Alaves and 1.00 for Real Sociedad.
What was the final score of Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Deportivo Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Deportivo Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Alaves win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Alaves 43%, draw 28%, Real Sociedad 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Deportivo Alaves), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.