Sabah 1-1 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
26%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.52
Over
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
2.13
No
46%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2-3
44%
4-5
21%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
21%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.3pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
43%
+11.1pp
46%
BTTS No
57%
-11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sabah EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 30%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
396 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sabah
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
02.04.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 1-1 Sabah Sabah AZERK
19.01.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERS
27.10.2024 Sabah Sabah 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
18.08.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-2 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERS
25.05.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-0 Sabah Sabah AZERS
21.01.2024 Sabah Sabah 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sabah vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sabah and Neftçi PFK shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Sabah at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sabah had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sabah and 0.33 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sabah vs Neftçi PFK?

Sabah 1-1 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sabah vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sabah win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sabah 42%, draw 32%, Neftçi PFK 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sabah) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sabah) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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