Karabağ 3-0 Araz Nahçıvan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
59%
1.29
Draw
19%
4.95
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under
42%
2.23
Over
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
2.06
No
46%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
45%
4-5
21%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
7%
2/1
12%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Karabağ win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-14.2pp
19%
Draw
17%
+1.8pp
22%
Away Win
10%
+12.6pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
44%
+9.3pp
46%
BTTS No
56%
-9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 12%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +67% / +67%
2.63/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/0.00
-7% / -54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% /
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
451 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karabağ
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Araz Nahçıvan
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
02.04.2025 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 HT 1-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERK
08.03.2025 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-3 HT 1-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
22.12.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
02.08.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-4 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
23.01.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
30.10.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ swept aside Araz Nahçıvan 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Karabağ and 1.00 for Araz Nahçıvan.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Karabağ 3-0 Araz Nahçıvan in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Araz Nahçıvan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 59%, draw 19%, Araz Nahçıvan 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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