Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 2 Apr 2025

📅02/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
30%
3.94
Away
45%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.68
Over 2.5
34%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.33
No
63%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
14%
+10.6pp
30%
Draw
22%
+7.9pp
46%
Away Win
64%
-18.6pp
66%
Under 2.5
56%
+10.3pp
34%
Over 2.5
44%
-10.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
39%
-2.3pp
63%
BTTS No
61%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 69%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +91% / +150%
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
222 · 66% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
8 Corners 6
08.03.2025 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-3 HT 1-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
22.12.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 2-0 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
02.08.2024 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-4 HT 0-2 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
23.01.2024 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
30.10.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 2-1 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
20.08.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 2-1 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan edged past Karabağ 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Karabağ at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 2.50 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?

Araz Nahçıvan 1-0 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 02/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 25%, draw 30%, Karabağ 46%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Karabağ) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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