Club Guarani 2-1 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.54
Over
47%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.16
No Pick
58%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.24
2-3
40%
1.75
4-5
20%
4.97
6+
10%
30.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
7.81
1/2
4%
30.5
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
14%
8.61
X/2
14%
4.05
X/X
16%
4.03
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
30%
2.52
2/X
4%
15.85
Value flag · X/1 at 8.61 — our 14% vs market 8.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
48%
Away Win
52%
-3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
61%
-7.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
39%
+7.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
42%
-0.1pp
58%
BTTS No
58%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club Guarani EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 56%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -39%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
261 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club Guarani
2-1
AWAY Independiente
1.73 xG 2.09
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
199 Passes 404
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 38
17 Crosses 37
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Club Guarani vs Independiente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club Guarani edged past Independiente 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Independiente at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Club Guarani had 35% of the ball to Independiente's 65%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.73 to 2.09.

What was the final score of Club Guarani vs Independiente?

Club Guarani 2-1 Independiente in the Copa Sudamericana on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club Guarani vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Club Guarani 26%, draw 26%, Independiente 48%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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