Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Once Caldas Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ v Once Caldas — Team-Based Signals
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-3 Once Caldas — Actual Match Statistics
Once Caldas edged past Gualberto Villarroel SJ 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Gualberto Villarroel SJ had 55% of the ball to Once Caldas's 45%, shots finished 18-26, expected goals 0.62 to 3.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Once Caldas's control.
What was the final score of Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Once Caldas?
Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-3 Once Caldas in the Copa Sudamericana on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gualberto Villarroel SJ vs Once Caldas?
Before kick-off our model rated an Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Gualberto Villarroel SJ 29%, draw 21%, Once Caldas 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.