Melgar 1-0 Academia Puerto Cabello — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.03
Over
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.69
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
23%
3.07
6+
11%
10.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.69 — our 27% vs market 21.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.66
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
5%
18.85
X/1
21%
3.83
X/2
6%
15.6
X/X
10%
6.53
2/1
9%
23.3
2/2
7%
13.65
2/X
6%
21.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Melgar win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
68%
-8.0pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.8pp
19%
Away Win
12%
+6.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.9pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Academia Puerto Cabello EU Bookmakers 16%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
2.10/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/2.02
-19% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -63% / +21%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 73%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.4
29.2 Crosses 14.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
1-0
AWAY Academia Puerto Cabello
1.11 xG 0.59
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
258 Passes 297
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 5
15 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Academia Puerto Cabello
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar edged past Academia Puerto Cabello 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Melgar had 48% of the ball to Academia Puerto Cabello's 52%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.11 to 0.59.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

Melgar 1-0 Academia Puerto Cabello in the Copa Sudamericana on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Academia Puerto Cabello?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Melgar 60%, draw 21%, Academia Puerto Cabello 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melgar) ✓ BTTS No
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