KuPS Kuopio 4-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.64
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.45
6+ Goals
10%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 26% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.73
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
17.95
X/1
16%
3.85
X/2
10%
14.55
X/X
10%
6.03
2/1
10%
23.75
2/2
5%
12.85
2/X
7%
21.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.2pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.0pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.66/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.75
-14% / +63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
459 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 79%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.2 Crosses 14.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.79 xG 1.05
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
499 Passes 268
86% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.08.2024 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 3-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
16.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
13.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
27.06.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-1 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
30.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-2 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
4-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.09 xG 0.46
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
621 Passes 281
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
44 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio cruised past IFK Mariehamn 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 66% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 34%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.09 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

KuPS Kuopio 4-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 57%, draw 23%, IFK Mariehamn 20%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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