KuPS Kuopio 3-0 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
20%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.13
No
60%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.52
6+ Goals
9%
13.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
20.3
X/1
18%
3.39
X/2
9%
15.8
X/X
11%
5.88
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
6%
13.75
2/X
6%
21.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
12%
+7.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.3pp
60%
BTTS No
57%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME KuPS Kuopio EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 15%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.73/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.90
-12% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +8%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
469 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 76%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
22.7 Crosses 11.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3W-2D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.71 xG 1.25
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
530 Passes 225
86% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.06.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-3 HT 0-2 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
13.04.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-2 HT 1-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
05.07.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 0-1 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİK
27.06.2023 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 0-1 HT 0-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
30.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-2 HT 0-0 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio FİN
14.08.2022 KuPS Kuopio KuPS Kuopio 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME KuPS Kuopio
3-0
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.03 xG 0.43
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
17 Corners 4
405 Passes 399
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
38 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

KuPS Kuopio swept aside IFK Mariehamn 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had KuPS Kuopio as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, KuPS Kuopio had 51% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 49%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.03 to 0.43.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, KuPS Kuopio had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for KuPS Kuopio and 0.83 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

KuPS Kuopio 3-0 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for KuPS Kuopio vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a KuPS Kuopio win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split KuPS Kuopio 58%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (KuPS Kuopio), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (KuPS Kuopio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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