FS Jelgava 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 23 Apr 2025

📅23/04/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Tukums 2000 EU Bookmakers 27%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
0.78/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.24
-30% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 74%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
21.4 Crosses 19.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FS Jelgava
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.21 xG 1.14
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
204 Passes 277
66% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 4
15.09.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 3-3 HT 3-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.06.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
07.05.2024 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 2-1 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-3 HT 1-2 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
11.11.2023 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 0-0 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.08.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 1-0 FK Tukums 2000 FK Tukums 2000 LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FS Jelgava
2-1
AWAY FK Tukums 2000
1.55 xG 0.86
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
319 Passes 193
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
29 Box Touches 18
36 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FS Jelgava edged past FK Tukums 2000 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had FS Jelgava as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, FS Jelgava had 61% of the ball to FK Tukums 2000's 39%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.55 to 0.86.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Tukums 2000 led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FS Jelgava and 1.33 for FK Tukums 2000.

What was the final score of FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

FS Jelgava 2-1 FK Tukums 2000 in the Latvia - Virsliga on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FS Jelgava vs FK Tukums 2000?

Before kick-off our model rated a FS Jelgava win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split FS Jelgava 48%, draw 27%, FK Tukums 2000 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FS Jelgava) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FS Jelgava) ✗ Under 2.5
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