Internacional 3-3 Nacional de Football — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 23 Apr 2025

Internacional
3-3 HT 1-3
Nacional de Football
📅23/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores – 2026

Internacional vs Nacional de Football Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
60%
1.75
Over
40%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
30%
2.81
2-3
41%
1.74
4-5
20%
3.82
6+
9%
17.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.81 — our 30% vs market 28.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.8
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
18.9
X/1
25%
3.7
X/2
7%
14.25
X/X
11%
5.32
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
8%
13.4
2/X
5%
22.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.3pp
25%
Draw
22%
+3.2pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.0pp
60%
Under 2.5
53%
+6.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
47%
-6.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.4pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Internacional v Nacional de Football — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Internacional EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional de Football EU Bookmakers 16%
+12% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -6%
2.13/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/1.95
+51% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +5%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 74%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
13.9 Crosses 13.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1

Internacional vs Nacional de Football Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Internacional
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nacional de Football
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.31 xG 1.11
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
386 Passes 242
80% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.06.2023 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 1-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional LKU
04.05.2023 Internacional Internacional 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football LKU
01.08.2019 Internacional Internacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football LKU
25.07.2019 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 0-1 HT 0-0 Internacional Internacional LKU
20.04.2007 Internacional Internacional 1-0 HT 0-0 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football LKU
22.02.2007 Nacional de Football Nacional de Football 3-1 HT 0-1 Internacional Internacional LKU
POST-MATCH Internacional vs Nacional de Football
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Internacional and Nacional de Football couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Internacional carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Internacional had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Internacional and 1.00 for Nacional de Football.

What was the final score of Internacional vs Nacional de Football?

Internacional 3-3 Nacional de Football in the Copa Libertadores on 23/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Internacional vs Nacional de Football?

Before kick-off our model rated a Internacional win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Internacional 55%, draw 25%, Nacional de Football 20%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Internacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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