Vila Nova 0-3 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 23 May 2025

📅23/05/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.8
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
30%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.11
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
5.45
6+ Goals
9%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+9.1pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.7pp
30%
Away Win
37%
-6.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
+0.2pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 40%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
0.62/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/0.74
-31% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
14.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.9 Crosses 15.8
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 1.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
228 Passes 376
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.05.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 2-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRK
15.10.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
02.07.2022 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
02.11.2021 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
24.07.2021 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
0-3
AWAY Cruzeiro
1.14 xG 1.85
48% Ball Possession 52%
21 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 10
9 Corners 5
319 Passes 354
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro cruised past Vila Nova 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Vila Nova at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Vila Nova had 48% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 52%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 1.14 to 1.85.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cruzeiro led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Vila Nova and 1.00 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Cruzeiro?

Vila Nova 0-3 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Cup on 23/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 42%, draw 28%, Cruzeiro 30%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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