Kyoto Sanga 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.73
4-5 Goals
23%
3.33
6+ Goals
12%
12.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-0.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.57/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.27/1.93
+22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.2
21.5 Crosses 8.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-0D-4L
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.81 xG 0.72
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
355 Passes 269
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
20 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.03.2026 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
02.10.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
03.07.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
02.12.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.07.2020 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
21.09.2019 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
1-0
AWAY V-Varen Nagasaki
2.11 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
22 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 4
286 Passes 219
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
30 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs V-Varen Nagasaki
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga edged past V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kyoto Sanga as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 55% of the ball to V-Varen Nagasaki's 45%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.11 to 0.67 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kyoto Sanga's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.33 for V-Varen Nagasaki.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Kyoto Sanga 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki in the Japan - J1 League on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs V-Varen Nagasaki?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 42%, draw 25%, V-Varen Nagasaki 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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