Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 23 May 2026

📅23/05/2026 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.86
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
26%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.55
No
48%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
23%
4.39
2-3 Goals
44%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
2.7
6+ Goals
10%
7.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.39 — our 23% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
50%
+2.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
26%
Away Win
26%
-0.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+10.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-10.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
48%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.59/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.25
-18% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
307 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 76%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
25.9 Crosses 18.1
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.85 xG 0.95
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
395 Passes 202
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
29 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.03.2026 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
27.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-4 HT 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK
28.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
4-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.91 xG 1.96
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
257 Passes 449
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 32
13 Crosses 30
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanfrecce Hiroshima got the better of Nagoya Grampus 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sanfrecce Hiroshima as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 38% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 62%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.91 to 1.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nagoya Grampus led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.67 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 23/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 52%, draw 22%, Nagoya Grampus 26%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ BTTS Yes
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