Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 Mar 2026

📅18/03/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.95
Over 2.5
57%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.68
No
42%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.45
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 26% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
19%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.3pp
47%
Away Win
47%
+0.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
57%
Over 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.4pp
42%
BTTS No
44%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 50%
+4% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +23%
1.24/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.00
+14% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +19%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 80%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
17.0 Crosses 22.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.72 xG 1.21
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
226 Passes 398
67% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-4 HT 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JPK
28.06.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1.21 xG 0.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
259 Passes 357
72% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 32
23 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 44% of the ball to Sanfrecce Hiroshima's 56%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 1.21 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 1.67 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the Japan - J1 League on 18/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 29%, draw 24%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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