V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 18 Mar 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2 HT 1-1
Kyoto Sanga
📅18/03/2026 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Japan - J1 League – 2026

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.7
No
47%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.43
6+ Goals
9%
13.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 30% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
7%
X/2
14%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
38%
Away Win
38%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.4pp
47%
BTTS No
45%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

V-Varen Nagasaki v Kyoto Sanga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 42%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.80/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.40
-5% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +6%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
19.2 Crosses 15.9
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.2

V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
49% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.10.2021 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 2-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
03.07.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
02.12.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
25.07.2020 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
21.09.2019 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
27.08.2017 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-2
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
0.72 xG 1.81
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
269 Passes 355
70% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga squeezed past V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Kyoto Sanga found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 45% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 55%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.72 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.33 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 18/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 35%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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