Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.85
No
59%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.0
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.74
6+ Goals
8%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 33% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.44
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
13%
4.34
X/2
11%
8.68
X/X
11%
4.72
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
9%
7.04
2/X
8%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.0pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
50%
-9.1pp
59%
BTTS No
50%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 26%
-8% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -13%
1.41/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.10
-26% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
24.1 Crosses 16.6
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.25 xG 0.62
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
391 Passes 248
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
08.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
04.09.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JLK
17.08.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 1-2 HT 0-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima JAP
06.05.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-3 HT 1-2 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
30.09.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1-2
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.99 xG 1.41
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
380 Passes 182
79% Pass Accuracy 64%
27 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus squeezed past Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Sanfrecce Hiroshima at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 63% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 37%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 0.99 to 1.41.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sanfrecce Hiroshima and 1.50 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-2 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sanfrecce Hiroshima win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sanfrecce Hiroshima 47%, draw 26%, Nagoya Grampus 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sanfrecce Hiroshima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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