Kyoto Sanga 3-1 Gamba Osaka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.75
Over 2.5
42%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.9
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 33% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.05
1/2
8%
30.0
1/X
6%
13.45
X/1
15%
5.8
X/2
12%
5.54
X/X
15%
4.39
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
11%
3.78
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
36%
+4.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-4.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
53%
+4.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
47%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.4pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Gamba Osaka EU Bookmakers 40%
-12% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.38/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.25
-4% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -6%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.6
20.2 Crosses 16.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gamba Osaka
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
241 Passes 319
69% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 29
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.04.2025 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 2-1 HT 2-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
22.09.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-2 HT 1-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
03.04.2024 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
08.07.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
24.05.2023 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 0-1 HT 0-1 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JLK
15.04.2023 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 1-1 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
3-1
AWAY Gamba Osaka
0.90 xG 0.39
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
250 Passes 394
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga saw off Gamba Osaka 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (40% / 28% / 32%) promised a tight game; Kyoto Sanga found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 41% of the ball to Gamba Osaka's 59%, shots finished 12-6, expected goals 0.90 to 0.39.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.00 for Gamba Osaka.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka?

Kyoto Sanga 3-1 Gamba Osaka in the Japan - J1 League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Gamba Osaka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 40%, draw 28%, Gamba Osaka 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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