Kashima Antlers 1-2 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 28 Jun 2025

📅28/06/2025 · 🕒12:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.71
Over 2.5
38%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.9
No
60%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.99
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 35% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.48
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
14%
4.34
X/2
7%
8.64
X/X
18%
4.48
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
12%
7.15
2/X
6%
15.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-5.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.2pp
62%
Under 2.5
55%
+7.0pp
38%
Over 2.5
45%
-7.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.1pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kashima Antlers EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 26%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.50/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.24
+0% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +41%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
393 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 74%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
20.2 Crosses 19.8
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kashima Antlers
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.50 xG 1.20
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
306 Passes 192
76% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
20.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-2 HT 1-0 Kashima Antlers Kashima Antlers JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kashima Antlers
1-2
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
1.38 xG 0.54
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 3
429 Passes 137
82% Pass Accuracy 62%
39 Box Touches 11
38 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kashima Antlers vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fagiano Okayama nicked a narrow win over Kashima Antlers 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Kashima Antlers at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kashima Antlers had 70% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 30%, shots finished 19-10, expected goals 1.38 to 0.54 — on chances, Kashima Antlers could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Kashima Antlers vs Fagiano Okayama?

Kashima Antlers 1-2 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kashima Antlers vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kashima Antlers win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Kashima Antlers 45%, draw 30%, Fagiano Okayama 25%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kashima Antlers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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