Austin 3-1 Seattle Sounders — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jul 2026

📅23/07/2026 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
2.03
Over
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.69
2-3
39%
1.79
4-5
20%
3.08
6+
11%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.69 — our 30% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.65
1/2
10%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.35
X/1
10%
5.83
X/2
11%
5.84
X/X
13%
4.89
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
17%
3.66
2/X
6%
12.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
36%
Home Win
37%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.5pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Austin The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Seattle Sounders The Market 40%
+9% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.33/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.13
-2% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
332 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 81%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
19.6 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Austin
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Seattle Sounders
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.06 xG 1.62
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
324 Passes 433
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.09.2025 Austin Austin 2-1 HT 1-0 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders ABD
29.06.2025 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 2-0 HT 1-0 Austin Austin ABD
03.03.2024 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 0-0 HT 0-0 Austin Austin ABD
31.08.2023 Austin Austin 1-2 HT 0-0 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders ABD
18.05.2023 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 1-2 HT 0-1 Austin Austin ABD
11.09.2022 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 3-0 HT 2-0 Austin Austin ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Austin
3-1
AWAY Seattle Sounders
1.08 xG 1.44
10 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
365 Passes 340
20 Box Touches 22
13 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Austin vs Seattle Sounders
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Austin got the better of Seattle Sounders 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (36% / 26% / 38%) promised a tight game; Austin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.08 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Seattle Sounders led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Austin and 1.50 for Seattle Sounders.

What was the final score of Austin vs Seattle Sounders?

Austin 3-1 Seattle Sounders in the USA - Major League on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Austin vs Seattle Sounders?

Before kick-off our model rated an Seattle Sounders win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Austin 36%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 38%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Seattle Sounders) ✗ Under 2.5
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