Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 23 Jul 2026

📅23/07/2026 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
25%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.59
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
5.56
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
22%
2.52
6+ Goals
11%
5.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.19
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
9%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.72
X/2
7%
9.15
X/X
12%
6.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.05
2/2
13%
6.04
2/X
4%
13.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.05 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-3.2pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
25%
Away Win
24%
+1.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.6pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.4pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Philadelphia Union EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -16%
1.95/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.58
+3% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
357 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 80%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.8
22.0 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Philadelphia Union
4W-1D-1L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.17 xG 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 313
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.08.2025 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 1-0 HT 0-0 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
14.08.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 3-2 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABDK
13.07.2025 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 2-0 HT 2-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
01.09.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-2 HT 0-2 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union ABD
07.07.2024 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 0-0 HT 0-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
04.09.2023 Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 4-1 HT 1-1 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Philadelphia Union
3-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
3.25 xG 0.79
24 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 6
197 Passes 431
29 Box Touches 19
23 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Philadelphia Union got the better of New York Red Bulls 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Philadelphia Union as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 3.25 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Philadelphia Union and 0.67 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?

Philadelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated a Philadelphia Union win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Philadelphia Union 50%, draw 25%, New York Red Bulls 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Philadelphia Union), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Philadelphia Union) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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