New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
New York Red Bulls v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals
New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-1
HT 1-1
New York Red Bulls
ABD
1-1
HT 0-1
New York Red Bulls
CONLK
New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics
New York Red Bulls squeezed past Philadelphia Union 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had New York Red Bulls as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, New York Red Bulls had 51% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 49%, shots finished 7-11, expected goals 0.31 to 1.37 — the balance of chances actually favoured Philadelphia Union.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for New York Red Bulls and 2.00 for Philadelphia Union.
What was the final score of New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
New York Red Bulls 1-0 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
Before kick-off our model rated a New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split New York Red Bulls 43%, draw 23%, Philadelphia Union 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York Red Bulls) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.