Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Jul 2026

📅23/07/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.48
2-3 Goals
43%
1.73
4-5 Goals
18%
4.42
6+ Goals
9%
23.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.82
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
12%
4.51
X/2
12%
7.36
X/X
14%
3.92
2/1
8%
29.0
2/2
9%
6.01
2/X
6%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.3pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 29%
+6% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
1.54/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.44
+14% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +10%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
301 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 80%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
19.6 Crosses 17.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.12
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
397 Passes 280
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.08.2025 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BRK
10.11.2024 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.07.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
29.10.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
22.06.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
31.07.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
1-2
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
0.90 xG 2.05
18 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
570 Passes 213
25 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense edged past Sao Paulo 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 0.90 to 2.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.00 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Sao Paulo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 47%, draw 27%, Atletico Paranaense 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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