Macara 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.85
No
45%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.6pp
45%
BTTS No
50%
-4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Macara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -11%
1.24/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.60
-45% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -33%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
286 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
22.0 Crosses 19.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Macara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 1.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
201 Passes 231
69% Pass Accuracy 73%
16 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.05.2025 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 4-3 HT 1-2 Macara Macara EKV1
03.11.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 2-1 HT 0-1 Macara Macara EKV1
11.05.2024 Macara Macara 0-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
04.09.2022 Macara Macara 3-0 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
21.04.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-0 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
21.08.2021 Macara Macara 1-1 HT 1-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Macara
2-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.02 xG 1.22
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
227 Passes 250
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Macara vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Macara squeezed past Mushuc Runa 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Macara made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Macara had 48% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 52%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 1.02 to 1.22.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mushuc Runa led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Macara and 1.17 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Macara vs Mushuc Runa?

Macara 2-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Macara vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Macara win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Macara 40%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Macara), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Macara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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