Libertad vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Libertad v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
Libertad vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 0-0
Libertad
EKV1
2-2
HT 1-1
Aucas
EKV1
Libertad 3-2 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics
Libertad squeezed past Aucas 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Libertad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Libertad had 51% of the ball to Aucas's 49%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.07 to 0.83.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 1.33 for Aucas.
What was the final score of Libertad vs Aucas?
Libertad 3-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Libertad vs Aucas?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Libertad 35%, draw 28%, Aucas 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5 went the other way.