Libertad 3-2 Aucas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 23 Aug 2025

📅23/08/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.57
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
37%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
35%
+0.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
37%
Away Win
38%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.0pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Aucas EU Bookmakers 42%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +11%
1.20/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.22
-1% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +26%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
285 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 74%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.5
23.3 Crosses 18.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Aucas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.27 xG 1.60
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
220 Passes 316
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
06.05.2025 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
26.10.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
05.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-1 HT 0-1 Libertad Libertad EKVK
05.05.2024 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
27.08.2023 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
01.04.2023 Libertad Libertad 2-2 HT 1-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
3-2
AWAY Aucas
1.07 xG 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 10
266 Passes 230
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 34
16 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Aucas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad squeezed past Aucas 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Libertad found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 51% of the ball to Aucas's 49%, shots finished 10-18, expected goals 1.07 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Libertad and 1.33 for Aucas.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Aucas?

Libertad 3-2 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Aucas?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Libertad 35%, draw 28%, Aucas 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aucas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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