Tijuana vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Tijuana v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals
Tijuana vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Tijuana 3-3 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics
Tijuana and Guadalajara finished all square at 3-3. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. With 6 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
A gentle 41% lean on Guadalajara didn't survive contact with the match; margins like that flip all the time. The market had leaned harder still (2.11, ~47%); nobody's numbers saw this one coming.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 47% for over 2.5, 52% on both teams scoring. At 1.68 (~60%), the over-2.5 price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
On the day, Guadalajara saw more of the ball, 67% to 33%, shots finished 14-22, expected goals 2.38 to 1.89.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.33 a game for Tijuana against 1.67 for Guadalajara.
Tijuana vs Guadalajara Result & Final Score
Tijuana 3-3 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Tijuana vs Guadalajara Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 34%, draw 25%, Guadalajara 41%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Guadalajara), Under 2.5 went the other way.