Moreirense 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 23 Aug 2025

Moreirense
2-0 HT 0-0
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅23/08/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.51
6+ Goals
8%
24.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.52
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
12%
5.93
X/2
15%
5.06
X/X
14%
3.84
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
13%
3.54
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.0pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-3.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.12/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.11
+1% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +22%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 77%
14.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.3
17.2 Crosses 20.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.1

Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.65 xG 0.89
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
298 Passes 330
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.03.2025 Moreirense Moreirense 2-2 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.11.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
30.03.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
05.11.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 3-2 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK

Moreirense 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-0
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.54 xG 0.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
293 Passes 299
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 28
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense saw off Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Moreirense had 48% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 52%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 1.54 to 0.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Moreirense and 1.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Moreirense 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 23/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 35%, draw 31%, Vitoria Guimaraes 35%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/31/35) ✓ Under 2.5
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