Moreirense 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.09
No
59%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
18%
5.34
6+ Goals
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.73
1/2
12%
32.5
1/X
6%
15.65
X/1
10%
6.72
X/2
14%
4.55
X/X
17%
3.77
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
17%
3.18
2/X
7%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.5pp
43%
Away Win
44%
-0.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.2pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.6pp
59%
BTTS No
56%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 48%
+7% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.02/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.02
+1% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +26%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
266 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.1
16.1 Crosses 22.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.74 xG 0.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
292 Passes 311
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
30.03.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
05.11.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
03.04.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.11.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 3-2 HT 2-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
06.11.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
2-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.89 xG 1.17
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
281 Passes 440
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense and Vitoria Guimaraes shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Vitoria Guimaraes at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moreirense had 40% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 60%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 0.89 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Moreirense and 1.17 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Moreirense 2-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 27%, draw 30%, Vitoria Guimaraes 43%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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