Famalicao 4-1 AVS — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
26%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.89 — our 31% vs market 28.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.24
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
14.75
X/1
10%
4.16
X/2
9%
9.9
X/X
15%
4.69
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
12%
8.39
2/X
7%
16.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.2pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY AVS EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.36/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.43
-24% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
24.2 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
1W-0D-0L
AWAY AVS
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.17 xG 1.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 4
362 Passes 293
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 15
4 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 4
03.11.2024 AVS AVS 2-3 HT 2-2 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
4-1
AWAY AVS
2.36 xG 0.53
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 2
447 Passes 280
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs AVS
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao ran out comfortable winners over AVS 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Famalicao had 60% of the ball to AVS's 40%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 2.36 to 0.53.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs AVS?

Famalicao 4-1 AVS in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs AVS?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 45%, draw 29%, AVS 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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