Estoril 1-2 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
52%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.1
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 30% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
9.94
1/2
8%
24.65
1/X
11%
18.5
X/1
8%
11.5
X/2
24%
3.95
X/X
9%
5.26
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
19%
1.99
2/X
6%
16.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+5.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.5pp
52%
Away Win
59%
-7.3pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 62%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -13%
0.64/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/0.91
-43% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +17%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
223 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
13.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.2
20.1 Crosses 18.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Porto
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 2.35
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
197 Passes 517
73% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 37
9 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 4
03.11.2024 Porto Porto 4-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
30.03.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
09.01.2024 Estoril Estoril 0-4 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POK
06.12.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-1 HT 1-1 Porto Porto PORLC
03.11.2023 Porto Porto 0-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.03.2023 Porto Porto 3-2 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-2
AWAY Porto
0.90 xG 1.96
40% Ball Possession 60%
3 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 6
237 Passes 394
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
7 Box Touches 25
10 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto nicked a narrow win over Estoril 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Estoril had 40% of the ball to Porto's 60%, shots finished 3-14, expected goals 0.90 to 1.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Estoril and 2.00 for Porto.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Porto?

Estoril 1-2 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Estoril 23%, draw 25%, Porto 52%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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