Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Fajr Sepasi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 23 Sep 2024

📅23/09/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.84
Draw
36%
2.88
Away
33%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
70%
1.41
Over 2.5
30%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.29
No
57%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
1.97
2-3 Goals
48%
1.85
4-5 Goals
12%
6.78
6+ Goals
6%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
13%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
21%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Draw ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
32%
-0.4pp
36%
Draw
31%
+4.9pp
32%
Away Win
37%
-4.5pp
70%
Under 2.5
67%
+2.9pp
30%
Over 2.5
33%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.9pp
57%
BTTS No
60%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naft Gachsaran EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Fajr Sepasi EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.46/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/0.47
+55% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +106% / +86%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
261 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naft Gachsaran
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Fajr Sepasi
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
27.02.2024 Naft Gachsaran 0-1 HT 0-0 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi IRANAZ
25.09.2023 Fajr Sepasi Fajr Sepasi 1-0 HT 0-0 Naft Gachsaran IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Naft Gachsaran vs Fajr Sepasi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fajr Sepasi nicked a narrow win over Naft Gachsaran 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (31% / 36% / 32%) promised a tight game; Fajr Sepasi found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fajr Sepasi led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Naft Gachsaran and 1.00 for Fajr Sepasi.

What was the final score of Naft Gachsaran vs Fajr Sepasi?

Naft Gachsaran 0-1 Fajr Sepasi in the Iran - Azadegan League on 23/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naft Gachsaran vs Fajr Sepasi?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Naft Gachsaran 31%, draw 36%, Fajr Sepasi 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Draw) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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