Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 Ayr United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Championship, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.62
Over 2.5
44%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
4.3
6+ Goals
9%
23.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.36
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
14%
4.94
X/2
10%
6.25
X/X
14%
3.96
2/1
8%
30.5
2/2
13%
4.81
2/X
5%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
42%
+4.0pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.2pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-0.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
58%
-1.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
42%
+1.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunfermline Athletic EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ayr United EU Bookmakers 33%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.44/0.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.33
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
300 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
18.0 Crosses 9.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunfermline Athletic
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ayr United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
7 Corners 6
29.03.2025 Ayr United Ayr United 3-0 HT 1-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
14.01.2025 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 0-2 HT 0-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
23.11.2024 Ayr United Ayr United 1-0 HT 0-0 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
31.08.2024 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 HT 1-1 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
02.03.2024 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic 2-0 HT 2-0 Ayr United Ayr United İKCL
30.12.2023 Ayr United Ayr United 2-2 HT 1-2 Dunfermline Athletic Dunfermline Athletic İKCL
POST-MATCH Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ayr United nicked a narrow win over Dunfermline Athletic 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Dunfermline Athletic at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ayr United led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Dunfermline Athletic and 1.50 for Ayr United.

What was the final score of Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?

Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 Ayr United in the Scotland - Championship on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunfermline Athletic vs Ayr United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dunfermline Athletic win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Dunfermline Athletic 46%, draw 25%, Ayr United 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dunfermline Athletic) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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