Tallinna Kalev 0-1 Trans Narva — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 23 Oct 2024

📅23/10/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.84
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
48%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
31%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.6pp
48%
Away Win
43%
+5.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.5pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tallinna Kalev EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 48%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.09/1.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.51
-19% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
283 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tallinna Kalev
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Trans Narva
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.08.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
12.05.2024 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 1-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
13.04.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-2 HT 0-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
11.11.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 5-0 HT 2-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
01.09.2023 Trans Narva Trans Narva 2-1 HT 1-0 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev EST1
07.06.2023 Tallinna Kalev Tallinna Kalev 0-1 HT 0-1 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tallinna Kalev
0-1
AWAY Trans Narva
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva squeezed past Tallinna Kalev 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Trans Narva as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tallinna Kalev had 55% of the ball to Trans Narva's 45%, shots finished 16-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Tallinna Kalev and 1.17 for Trans Narva.

What was the final score of Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Tallinna Kalev 0-1 Trans Narva in the Estonia - Premium League on 23/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tallinna Kalev vs Trans Narva?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Tallinna Kalev 28%, draw 24%, Trans Narva 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trans Narva) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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