Truro City 2-1 Chesham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.67
Over 2.5
35%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.88
No
60%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.73
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
4.38
6+ Goals
6%
22.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 36% vs market 31.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.4pp
65%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
49%
-8.8pp
60%
BTTS No
51%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Truro City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesham United EU Bookmakers 33%
-3% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.16/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/1.00
-18% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / +38%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
329 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Truro City
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Chesham United
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.02.2023 Truro City Truro City 3-1 HT 0-1 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
26.11.2022 Chesham United Chesham United 3-1 HT 3-0 Truro City Truro City İNGNLP
04.12.2021 Chesham United Chesham United 3-1 HT 3-0 Truro City Truro City İNGNLP
25.09.2021 Truro City Truro City 4-1 HT 2-0 Chesham United Chesham United İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Truro City vs Chesham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Truro City nicked a narrow win over Chesham United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Truro City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for Truro City and 2.00 for Chesham United.

What was the final score of Truro City vs Chesham United?

Truro City 2-1 Chesham United in the England - Conference on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Truro City vs Chesham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Truro City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Truro City 43%, draw 29%, Chesham United 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Truro City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Truro City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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