Chesterfield 1-0 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.05
6+ Goals
9%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 28.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.77
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
13.9
X/1
9%
4.39
X/2
14%
7.43
X/X
10%
4.4
2/1
9%
27.0
2/2
11%
5.79
2/X
7%
14.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-7.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+5.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.2pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -18%
1.31/1.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.27
+26% / -40% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
270 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 73%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
15.5 Crosses 18.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chesterfield
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Barrow
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 8
24.08.2019 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-2 Barrow Barrow İBSL
26.01.2019 Chesterfield Chesterfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İBSL
14.08.2018 Barrow Barrow 3-2 HT 1-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chesterfield
1-0
AWAY Barrow
0.90 xG 0.33
63% Ball Possession 37%
9 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 4
435 Passes 222
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Chesterfield vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield squeezed past Barrow 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Chesterfield made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Chesterfield had 63% of the ball to Barrow's 37%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 0.90 to 0.33.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Barrow led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Chesterfield and 1.67 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Chesterfield vs Barrow?

Chesterfield 1-0 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chesterfield vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chesterfield win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Chesterfield 40%, draw 28%, Barrow 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chesterfield), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chesterfield) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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