Gillingham 1-2 Harrogate Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 23 Nov 2024

Gillingham
1-2 HT 0-0
Harrogate Town
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Gillingham vs Harrogate Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.84
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
17%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.84 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.23
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.25
X/1
18%
3.76
X/2
6%
9.76
X/X
11%
4.69
2/1
10%
26.5
2/2
10%
8.3
2/X
6%
17.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
BTTS No — 60% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
56%
-2.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+2.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.0pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gillingham v Harrogate Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gillingham EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Harrogate Town EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +16%
1.59/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.33
-29% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
319 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 67%
34.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
28.9 Crosses 13.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Gillingham vs Harrogate Town Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gillingham
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Harrogate Town
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.09 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
278 Passes 273
68% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 19
26 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.04.2024 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 5-1 HT 0-1 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
09.09.2023 Gillingham Gillingham 1-0 HT 0-0 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2
04.03.2023 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Gillingham Gillingham İN2
16.08.2022 Gillingham Gillingham 0-2 HT 0-1 Harrogate Town Harrogate Town İN2

Gillingham 1-2 Harrogate Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gillingham
1-2
AWAY Harrogate Town
0.85 xG 0.87
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
235 Passes 192
64% Pass Accuracy 62%
21 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gillingham vs Harrogate Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Harrogate Town edged past Gillingham 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Gillingham at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gillingham had 56% of the ball to Harrogate Town's 44%, shots finished 7-8, expected goals 0.85 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Harrogate Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Gillingham and 1.75 for Harrogate Town.

What was the final score of Gillingham vs Harrogate Town?

Gillingham 1-2 Harrogate Town in the England - 2nd Division on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gillingham vs Harrogate Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gillingham win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Gillingham 54%, draw 24%, Harrogate Town 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gillingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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