Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 23 Nov 2024

Bournemouth
1-2 HT 0-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
34%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.88
6+ Goals
12%
8.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.26
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
12%
5.66
X/2
7%
6.43
X/X
16%
5.28
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.7
2/2
21%
3.91
2/X
4%
12.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
34%
Away Win
34%
+0.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.5pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 37%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -11%
1.47/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.08
+9% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.2
18.6 Crosses 17.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.4

Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bournemouth
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.20 xG 1.95
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
236 Passes 504
74% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.04.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 3-0 HT 1-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
24.09.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-1 HT 1-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
04.04.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-2 HT 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
04.02.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 1-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
21.01.2020 Bournemouth Bournemouth 3-1 HT 2-0 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
28.12.2019 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 HT 1-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP

Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bournemouth
1-2
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.65 xG 0.94
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 0
415 Passes 339
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
39 Box Touches 14
36 Crosses 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brighton & Hove Albion nicked a narrow win over Bournemouth 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Brighton & Hove Albion found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bournemouth had 55% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 45%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.65 to 0.94 — on chances, Bournemouth could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Bournemouth and 1.50 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Bournemouth 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bournemouth vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Bournemouth 39%, draw 27%, Brighton & Hove Albion 34%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bournemouth) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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