Atletico Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 23 Nov 2024

Atletico Madrid
2-1 HT 0-1
Deportivo Alaves
📅23/11/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.86
2-3 Goals
42%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
4.17
6+ Goals
10%
20.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
10%
19.45
X/1
15%
3.42
X/2
9%
13.3
X/X
11%
5.11
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
8%
12.05
2/X
7%
20.75
Value flag · 1/X at 19.45 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.8pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Deportivo Alaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves EU Bookmakers 17%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.80/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.62
+11% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
383 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 76%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
17.8 Crosses 18.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.43 xG 0.62
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
464 Passes 242
84% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
29.10.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 2-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
02.04.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 4-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
25.09.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.03.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves İS1
03.01.2021 Deportivo Alaves Deportivo Alaves 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
2-1
AWAY Deportivo Alaves
1.65 xG 0.86
70% Ball Possession 30%
11 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 0
505 Passes 175
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
19 Box Touches 5
29 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Alaves 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 70% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves's 30%, shots finished 11-4, expected goals 1.65 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Madrid and 1.00 for Deportivo Alaves.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves?

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Deportivo Alaves in the Spain - Primera Liga on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 51%, draw 27%, Deportivo Alaves 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ BTTS No
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