Hessen Kassel 1-3 Mainz 05 II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 23 Nov 2024

📅23/11/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 49%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
1.14/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.57
-17% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -19%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
238 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hessen Kassel
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Mainz 05 II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.07.2024 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-0 HT 3-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
17.11.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 4-1 HT 1-1 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
05.08.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
06.05.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
30.10.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-1 HT 3-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
06.04.2022 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Hessen Kassel vs Mainz 05 II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II saw off Hessen Kassel 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 27% / 40%) promised a tight game; Mainz 05 II found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Hessen Kassel and 1.83 for Mainz 05 II.

What was the final score of Hessen Kassel vs Mainz 05 II?

Hessen Kassel 1-3 Mainz 05 II in the Germany - Regional League on 23/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hessen Kassel vs Mainz 05 II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Mainz 05 II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Hessen Kassel 33%, draw 27%, Mainz 05 II 40%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05 II), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05 II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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