Mainz 05 II 3-0 Hessen Kassel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
5%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.8pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
37%
Away Win
43%
-6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.5pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.7pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 II EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Hessen Kassel EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -25% / -25%
1.20/2.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.24
-12% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05 II
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Hessen Kassel
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
17.11.2023 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 4-1 HT 1-1 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
05.08.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
06.05.2023 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 1-0 HT 1-0 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
30.10.2022 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 3-1 HT 3-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
06.04.2022 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel 2-1 HT 1-1 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II ALMBÖL
16.10.2021 Mainz 05 II Mainz 05 II 1-3 HT 0-0 Hessen Kassel Hessen Kassel ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05 II
3-0
AWAY Hessen Kassel
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 II vs Hessen Kassel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 II ran out comfortable winners over Hessen Kassel 3-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Mainz 05 II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Mainz 05 II had 56% of the ball to Hessen Kassel's 44%, shots finished 20-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hessen Kassel led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mainz 05 II and 1.67 for Hessen Kassel.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 II vs Hessen Kassel?

Mainz 05 II 3-0 Hessen Kassel in the Germany - Regional League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 II vs Hessen Kassel?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hessen Kassel win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 II 35%, draw 28%, Hessen Kassel 37%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Hessen Kassel), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hessen Kassel) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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