Mantova 4-1 Spezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 23 Nov 2025

Mantova
4-1 HT 1-1
Spezia
📅23/11/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Mantova vs Spezia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.27
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.83
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.98
6+ Goals
10%
18.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 31% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.48
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
18%
5.36
X/2
13%
6.4
X/X
11%
4.14
2/1
5%
29.5
2/2
6%
4.6
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
40%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.5pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mantova v Spezia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mantova EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Spezia EU Bookmakers 34%
+16% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.25/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.23
+10% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +22%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
345 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 77%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
15.4 Crosses 21.1
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Mantova vs Spezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mantova
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Spezia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.07 xG 1.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 Passes 273
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 42
18 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.04.2025 Mantova Mantova 2-2 HT 0-1 Spezia Spezia İTB
26.12.2024 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 0-1 Mantova Mantova İTB
17.05.2008 Spezia Spezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Mantova Mantova İTB
22.12.2007 Mantova Mantova 3-1 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
13.03.2007 Mantova Mantova 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
14.10.2006 Spezia Spezia 1-1 HT 1-0 Mantova Mantova İTB

Mantova 4-1 Spezia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mantova
4-1
AWAY Spezia
3.79 xG 1.72
66% Ball Possession 34%
23 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
545 Passes 233
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
33 Box Touches 22
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mantova vs Spezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mantova swept aside Spezia 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Mantova as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mantova had 66% of the ball to Spezia's 34%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 3.79 to 1.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Mantova had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Mantova and 0.83 for Spezia.

What was the final score of Mantova vs Spezia?

Mantova 4-1 Spezia in the Italy - Serie B on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mantova vs Spezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mantova win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Mantova 44%, draw 27%, Spezia 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mantova) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mantova) ✗ Under 2.5
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