Lille 4-2 Paris FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Nov 2025

Lille
4-2 HT 1-1
Paris FC
📅23/11/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Lille vs Paris FC Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.66
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
19%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.03
Over 2.5
50%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.72
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.16
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
22%
4.34
X/2
8%
9.95
X/X
10%
5.47
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.25
2/2
7%
7.74
2/X
6%
15.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.25 — our 12% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
56%
+3.5pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
19%
Away Win
20%
-1.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
45%
+4.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
55%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.6pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lille v Paris FC — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lille EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Paris FC EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.75/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.14
+3% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +61%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 79%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
18.1 Crosses 12.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7

Lille 4-2 Paris FC — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lille
4-2
AWAY Paris FC
4.03 xG 1.52
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
395 Passes 353
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
39 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lille vs Paris FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lille beat Paris FC 4-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lille as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lille had 52% of the ball to Paris FC's 48%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 4.03 to 1.52.

What was the final score of Lille vs Paris FC?

Lille 4-2 Paris FC in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lille vs Paris FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lille win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Lille 60%, draw 21%, Paris FC 19%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lille), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lille) ✓ BTTS Yes
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