Brest 3-2 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 23 Nov 2025

Brest
3-2 HT 1-1
Metz
📅23/11/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.8
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
28%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.0
Over 2.5
57%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
14%
10.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.41
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
14%
4.53
X/2
12%
8.59
X/X
9%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.7
2/2
11%
6.45
2/X
6%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.7 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-0.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
27%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
43%
Under 2.5
46%
-3.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
54%
+3.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 27%
+4% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
1.71/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.33
+22% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +11%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
386 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
23.2 Crosses 16.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Metz
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.70 xG 0.98
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
446 Passes 275
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.04.2024 Brest Brest 4-3 HT 3-1 Metz Metz FR1
10.12.2023 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
24.04.2022 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
26.09.2021 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FR1
31.01.2021 Brest Brest 2-4 HT 1-1 Metz Metz FR1
29.11.2020 Metz Metz 0-2 HT 0-1 Brest Brest FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
3-2
AWAY Metz
3.11 xG 0.95
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
435 Passes 331
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 9
23 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Brest vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest nicked a narrow win over Metz 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Brest as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

On the day, Brest had 56% of the ball to Metz's 44%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 3.11 to 0.95 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brest's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brest had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Brest and 1.50 for Metz.

What was the final score of Brest vs Metz?

Brest 3-2 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Brest 51%, draw 21%, Metz 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Brest), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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