Omiya Ardija 1-2 Tokushima Vortis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 23 Nov 2025

Omiya Ardija
1-2 HT 1-2
Tokushima Vortis
📅23/11/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Japan - J2 League – 2025

Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.78
Over
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2-3
40%
4-5
22%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
38%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Omiya Ardija v Tokushima Vortis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokushima Vortis EU Bookmakers 37%
-6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +5%
1.47/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/0.84
+13% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +35%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
325 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.0 Crosses 15.8
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.9

Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Omiya Ardija
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
316 Passes 379
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.03.2025 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 1-0 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
24.09.2023 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 0-1 HT 0-1 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
07.05.2023 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-3 HT 0-2 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
16.10.2022 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 3-1 HT 1-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2
19.03.2022 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 0-2 HT 0-2 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
16.12.2020 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 1-0 HT 1-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP2

Omiya Ardija 1-2 Tokushima Vortis — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Omiya Ardija
1-2
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
65% Ball Possession 35%
20 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
321 Passes 133
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
27 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokushima Vortis squeezed past Omiya Ardija 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Tokushima Vortis found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Omiya Ardija had 65% of the ball to Tokushima Vortis's 35%, shots finished 20-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tokushima Vortis led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Omiya Ardija and 1.67 for Tokushima Vortis.

What was the final score of Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis?

Omiya Ardija 1-2 Tokushima Vortis in the Japan - J2 League on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Omiya Ardija vs Tokushima Vortis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Omiya Ardija 39%, draw 26%, Tokushima Vortis 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Omiya Ardija) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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