V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 Mito HollyHock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒07:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.8
Over
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.0
2-3
39%
1.75
4-5
21%
3.61
6+
10%
15.15
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.0 — our 30% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+0.3pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Mito HollyHock EU Bookmakers 29%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.67/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.12
+23% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
378 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.4 Crosses 14.0
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mito HollyHock
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
378 Passes 378
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
31.05.2025 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 3-0 HT 3-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.08.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-1 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
02.06.2024 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 2-3 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
12.08.2023 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 3-3 HT 2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
03.05.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 4-0 HT 2-0 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock JAP2
14.09.2022 Mito HollyHock Mito HollyHock 0-1 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2-1
AWAY Mito HollyHock
44% Ball Possession 56%
6 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 6
274 Passes 386
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki edged past Mito HollyHock 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 44% of the ball to Mito HollyHock's 56%, shots finished 6-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.67 for Mito HollyHock.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock?

V-Varen Nagasaki 2-1 Mito HollyHock in the Japan - J2 League on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Mito HollyHock?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 48%, draw 27%, Mito HollyHock 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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